Two out of three ain’t bad, even for Nick Saban.
Three growing college football trends – NIL deals, player transfers and bowl game opt-outs – claim center stage during this winter acquisition period in which player maneuverings garner as much attention as postseason games.
NIL, that’s no problem for Alabama.
(Peep the latest recruiting rankings, where Alabama’s robust 2023 recruiting class ranks No. 1 nationally.)
How about opt-outs? Nope, Alabama’s stars, Bryce Young and Will Anderson Jr., opted in to the Sugar Bowl.
That leaves the transfer carousel as an exception that’s taking a bite out of the Crimson Tide.
But even as the sport evolves, Alabama remains built to last.
Saban’s greatness as a coach is tied in part to his ability to change with the sport, and Alabama’s recruiting machine continues to flourish even as players leverage their ability into third-party deals.
On the other hand, the transfer trend is proving to be an evolution not even Saban can rebuff. Alabama will be shorthanded for the Sugar Bowl after a wave of outbound transfers. Alabama wide receivers and offensive linemen, in particular, flooded the exits.
And yet, the next wave of Alabama talent is in the queue thanks to a recruiting class that includes seven five-star signees.
Texas A&M and Jimbo Fisher ruffled Saban’s feathers with the Aggies’ No. 1-ranked recruiting class last offseason. Then came a two-loss Alabama season, and the Crimson Tide missed the College Football Playoff for the first time since 2019.
Inevitably, an old (and previously debunked) narrative that Saban’s dynasty is dead got dusted off this season.
In truth, I think reality is a bit more nuanced than a simple debate of whether Alabama’s dynasty breathes or is ready for embalming.
Players’ freedom to transfer makes it more difficult for Alabama – or any program – to stockpile as much depth of talent as the Tide managed during Saban’s best day. At one point in Saban’s tenure, a lineup featuring Alabama’s reserves probably could have won the SEC East.
No more, and not just because a Georgia-sized juggernaut now resides in the East.
At the first sign of discontent or a lack of playing time, poof, a player can be into the portal and bound for another Power Five roster. Alabama cherry-picks some top inbound transfer talent, but while Alabama amasses quality, the quantity of outbound traffic is a steady stream that will affect Saban’s ability to stash a seemingly endless army of talent on his depth chart.
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The transfer carousel and a four-round, 12-team playoff that will arrive in 2024, create more hurdles for any program, even Saban’s.
The more things change, though, the more Alabama signs top recruiting classes.
Lost amid Fisher’s peacocking after Texas A&M signed a star-studded recruiting class last winter was Alabama ranking No. 2 in those recruiting ratings and Georgia No. 3.
Fast forward to this winter, and Alabama and Georgia signed the nation’s two best classes.
Many coaches would have you believe NIL morphed the sport into an unrecognizable spawn, but an Alabama-Georgia recruiting pecking order looks awfully familiar to the pre-NIL era.
The opportunity for success, quality coaches and a track record for sending players to the NFL ensure Alabama and Georgia remain enviable destinations for top recruits who now also covet NIL dollars.
Texas, Miami, Oklahoma, Ohio State, LSU, Notre Dame, Tennessee and Clemson round out the recruiting top 10. Those are big-brand programs that historically fare well on the recruiting trail.
So, viewed through that lens, not all that much changed in the recruiting space, except that college athletes can strike above-board deals to profit off their talent and fame.
To review, Alabama’s two signing classes since NIL rules changed ranked Nos. 2 and 1.
Consider recruiting in the NIL era a test Alabama has aced with a script A-plus.
I’m more surprised Alabama dodged the opt-out headwind. I don’t begrudge NFL-bound players who make the business decision to put their NFL futures ahead of a bowl game. Still, Young and Anderson embracing the Sugar Bowl reflects well on two players who want to play for their coach and their teammates.
“There’s been a lot of work that’s gone into this year, and I just get another chance to play with my brothers,” Young said.
While Young and Anderson relished one last game with Alabama, several teammates struck out a new path in the portal.
That’s Saban’s new reality. He can only control so much, especially when it comes to players leaving.
Most important is signing tomorrow’s stars and then developing them into leaders like Young and Anderson.
Blake Toppmeyer is an SEC Columnist for the USA TODAY Network. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.
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